15+ Uncorrelated Strategies


Investors increasingly seek strategies with little or no correlation to traditional assets (e.g., stocks, bonds, gold, broad commodities) to diversify portfolios.
Below we compile a list of global investment and trading strategies – both liquid and illiquid – that historically exhibit low or negative correlation to mainstream markets.
Each strategy is described along with its mechanics, typical correlations, liquidity profile, accessibility, expected risk/return, and real-world examples.
Key Takeaways – Uncorrelated Strategies
- Uncorrelated strategies generate returns from sources largely disconnected from traditional market cycles.
- These returns often stem from contractual events (insurance claims, litigation, royalties) or structural inefficiencies (volatility mispricing, trend-following).
- They provide critical diversification by reducing portfolio drawdowns during equity or bond selloffs.
- Though illiquidity and complexity are often trade-offs, these strategies enhance long-term portfolio resilience.
- Some, like tail risk hedging or managed futures, also act as crisis alpha when traditional markets fail.
Overview
Uncorrelated strategies generate returns from sources largely disconnected from traditional market cycles.
Unlike stocks or bonds, which rise and fall with economic conditions, these approaches are based on unique, process-driven events like legal outcomes, insurance claims, or royalty streams.
Rather than relying on price appreciation, they earn contractual cash flows such as premiums, settlements, or licensing revenue.
While true zero-correlation assets are rare, many of these strategies exhibit consistently low or even negative correlation to equities and bonds.
Accordingly, this makes them valuable for diversification and reducing portfolio volatility.
We have a table below comparing them.
Table: Strategy Comparison
Strategy | Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds | Liquidity | Investor Access | Expected Returns (Annual) | Risk/Volatility Profile |
Managed Futures (CTA) | Low (≈0; often negative in crises) | High (trades liquid futures; funds offer daily/weekly liquidity) | Institutional & Retail (CTA funds, liquid alts, ETFs) | ~5–10% (historically) | Moderate volatility; can profit in up or down markets, tends to shine in market stress (trend-following “crisis alpha”). |
Equity Market Neutral | Near zero (beta hedged) | Moderate (hedge funds with monthly or quarterly liquidity) | Primarily Institutional (some retail via liquid alt funds) | ~4–8% (steady alpha target) | Low volatility; minimal market beta exposure by design, relies on stock-picking skill. |
Volatility Arbitrage | Low (generally uncorrelated) | Moderate (strategies vary; fund liquidity quarterly or better) | Institutional (hedge funds); limited retail options | ~8–15% (varies by strategy) | Moderate risk on average; returns from mispriced volatility. Short-vol premium strategies earn steady income but carry tail risk, while relative-value vol trades are market-neutral. |
Tail Risk Hedging | Negative (strong inverse correlation in crashes) | High (highly liquid – options, VIX futures; some ETFs available) | Institutional (hedge funds, overlays) & Retail (ETFs, mutual funds) | Negative carry of ~5–10% (insurance cost) in normal times; occasional large gains in crises | High asymmetry – expected losses in calm markets, but pays off big during tail events (e.g. 2008 or 2020 market crashes). Used as portfolio insurance. |
Convertible Arbitrage | Low–Moderate (hedged equity exposure) | Low–Moderate (fund lock-ups; underlying bonds less liquid) | Institutional (hedge funds; some specialized funds) | ~6–10% (historical avg.) | Moderate volatility; strategy hedges out most equity risk by shorting stock, focusing on mispriced convertibles. Exposed to credit and liquidity risk, but generally steady, bond-like returns. |
Catastrophe Bonds (ILS) | Very low (near 0; e.g. ~0.24 vs stocks) | Moderate (1–3 year bonds; active secondary market exists) | Institutional (ILS funds); Emerging Retail access (e.g. new CAT bond ETF) | ~5–9% yield normally; higher recent returns (e.g. 17–20% in 2023–24) | Low routine volatility; event risk – stable interest-like returns unless a qualifying catastrophe hits, in which case principal loss occurs. Historically low correlation and positive returns even in 2008. |
Reinsurance Sidecars | Very low (uncorrelated to markets) | Illiquid (private 1–3 year vehicles; no public market) | Institutional (specialty reinsurance investors) | ~10–20% (equity-like returns if few losses) | High risk/return tail exposure – essentially taking on a slice of an insurer’s catastrophe portfolio. Can earn high premiums in benign years, but suffer large losses if major disasters occur. No direct market or interest rate sensitivity. |
Life Settlements | Very low (not tied to financial markets) | Illiquid (policies held to maturity; limited secondary market) | Institutional & Accredited (specialized funds; e.g. listed life settlement funds) | ~8–12% (net IRRs historically) | Low volatility if diversified; longevity risk is key (returns depend on insureds’ lifespans). Generally non-cyclical cash flows (life insurance payouts occur regardless of economy). |
Litigation Finance | None (truly uncorrelated to macro factors) | Illiquid (case durations 1–5+ years; no exchange trading) | Institutional & Accredited (litigation funding funds; a few public firms like Burford Capital) | ~15%+ target returns (some funds report high-teens) | High idiosyncratic risk per case (win or loss). Diversification across many cases is crucial. Historically delivered outsized, market-independent returns. Low correlation, but very limited liquidity until case resolutions. |
IP Royalties (Music, Pharma) | Very low (uncorrelated with economy) | Low (illiquid private deals; some listed royalty trusts) | Institutional & Retail (via royalty funds, marketplaces like Royalty Exchange) | ~5–15% (yield or IRR, deal-dependent) | Stable income streams from IP usage (streaming, drug sales). Returns depend on asset popularity or sales, not market swings. Low volatility, but risks include revenue decay (e.g. patent expiry or changing consumer tastes). |
Trade Finance | Low (minimal correlation to markets) | Moderate (short loan durations 30–180 days, usually packaged in funds) | Institutional (private credit funds); some Retail via fintech platforms | ~5–8% (stable yield) | Low volatility, self-liquidating loans backed by receivables or goods. Default rates historically very low; key risks are borrower defaults/fraud or extreme disruptions to trade. Largely insulated from stock/bond fluctuations. |
Private Debt (Direct & P2P Lending) | Moderate (not directly tied to stock indexes, but sensitive to economic cycles) | Low (loans are multi-year and illiquid; some liquidity via BDCs or secondary loan sales) | Institutional (direct lending funds) & Retail (P2P platforms, BDCs) | ~6–12% (interest yield depending on borrower risk) | Income-focused with moderate risk. Regular interest payments, but credit losses can spike in recessions (creating some indirect correlation to the economy). Generally low daily volatility (loans are not mark-to-market daily). |
Farmland | Negative (historically inverse to stocks) | Low (illiquid; direct ownership or private funds; a few REITs trade publicly) | Institutional & Retail (e.g. farmland REITs, crowdfunding platforms like AcreTrader) | ~8–12% (long-term total return) | Appraisal-based, given it’s generally illiquid. Farmland tends to do well steadily (e.g., +16% in 2008 when S&P –37%) and is positively correlated to inflation. Key risks: crop prices, weather, and liquidity, but land value tends to appreciate steadily with food demand. |
Timberland | Very low (little correlation to stocks/bonds) | Low (direct timberland is illiquid; some TIMO funds or timber REITs exist) | Institutional (Timber Investment Mgmt Orgs) & some Retail (timber REITs) | ~5–10% (historical returns) | Low–moderate volatility. Trees grow biologically (can be “stored on stump” during bad markets), providing natural growth in value. Timber prices have an inflation-hedge quality, with returns largely independent of stock/bond drivers. Downside risks include lumber price cycles and natural disasters (fire, pests) |
Infrastructure | Low–Moderate (usage-tied revenues partly insulated from cycles) | Low (private infra funds have long lock-ups; publicly traded infra assets available) | Institutional & Retail (listed infrastructure funds, trusts) | ~8–12% (mix of yield and growth) | Typically steady cash flows from essential services (tolls, utilities). Often regulated or contracted revenues => less economic sensitivity short-term. However, interest rate risk and political/regulatory risks exist. Generally lower volatility than equities, but not immune to economic extremes (e.g. transport asset usage can dip in recessions) |
Managed Futures (CTA)
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Managed futures strategies generally maintain a low to near-zero correlation to both equities and fixed income.
In fact, during major market selloffs, their correlation often turns negative.
This decorrelation is especially pronounced in trend-following approaches, which thrive during extended market dislocations or directional moves, regardless of whether those moves are up or down.
Liquidity
High. These strategies trade in global futures markets, covering asset classes like equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies, which are among the most liquid in the world.
Most managed futures funds offer daily or weekly liquidity. This makes them highly accessible and operationally flexible compared to many other alternative investments.
Access
Both institutional and retail investors can access managed futures.
Institutions often engage CTAs through separately managed accounts or hedge fund structures.
Retail investors now have access through liquid alternative mutual funds, ETFs (e.g., DBMF, KMLM), and UCITS vehicles in Europe.
This democratization has improved transparency and availability without sacrificing strategic integrity.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Historically, managed futures have delivered 5–10% annualized returns over multi-year horizons.
Their performance tends to be cyclical – strong in trending markets, muted or negative in range-bound environments.
However, they often outperform during major downturns, adding considerable portfolio value in times of stress (e.g., 2008, 2022).
Risk/Volatility Profile
Moderate. These strategies typically run risk-balanced portfolios across dozens of markets, which smooths volatility.
However, leverage is often used, and performance can be variable year to year.
Volatility generally ranges from 8–15%, depending on the specific manager and mandate.
Importantly, managed futures offer strong diversification and have demonstrated crisis alpha, strong positive returns when traditional assets are in distress.
Equity Market Neutral
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Equity market neutral (EMN) strategies aim for near-zero net exposure to the stock market by balancing long and short positions.
This minimizes beta and makes the strategy largely uncorrelated to broad market movements.
Its returns are driven by relative stock selection rather than market direction.
Liquidity
Moderate. Most EMN strategies are run through hedge funds with monthly or quarterly redemption windows.
While less liquid than mutual funds or ETFs, some liquid alternatives mimic EMN principles with more frequent access.
Access
Primarily institutional, though some retail investors can access EMN through liquid alt mutual funds and a few ETFs.
Direct investment typically requires accredited investor status due to the hedge fund structure.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Typically 4–8% annualized.
Returns are smoother than the broader market, but often lower.
The goal is steady alpha production rather than high upside.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Low volatility. By neutralizing market exposure, EMN reduces directional risk.
However, the strategy depends heavily on manager skill and may suffer during sharp market reversals or crowded trade unwinds.
Still, it’s valued for consistency and stability in diverse portfolios.
Volatility Arbitrage
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Volatility arbitrage strategies typically show low or near-zero correlation to equities and bonds.
They aim to profit from inefficiencies in the pricing of volatility itself, rather than from the directional moves of underlying assets.
While some implementations may have mild equity sensitivity (especially short-vol strategies), the core return drivers are market-neutral.
Liquidity
Moderate. These strategies often use exchange-traded instruments like options, variance swaps, and VIX futures, which are liquid.
However, the funds themselves (especially hedge funds) usually offer quarterly liquidity due to the complexity of managing options books and maintaining hedges.
Access
Primarily institutional, though sophisticated retail investors can access certain forms via hedge funds or structured products.
Retail exposure is limited, though a few ETFs and mutual funds may include volatility strategies in broader mandates.
Individual traders can, of course, use options and VIX futures on their own to design their own strategies.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Returns vary widely depending on strategy type.
Short-volatility strategies (selling options to capture the volatility risk premium) can generate 8–12% annualized, sometimes higher, in calm markets.
Relative-value or dispersion strategies targeting mispricings can earn 10–15% with lower directional risk.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Volatility arbitrage has a barbell risk profile.
Short-vol strategies benefit from the volatility risk premium, where implied volatility tends to exceed realized volatility, but carry tail risk during volatility spikes.
Relative-value approaches offer more balanced risk but require modeling and execution.
These strategies often provide steady returns until a dislocation occurs, at which point losses can be abrupt unless well-hedged.
Risk management is essential.
Tail Risk Hedging
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Tail risk hedging strategies are one of the few that exhibit consistently negative correlation to equities, especially during crisis periods.
When traditional assets crash, tail hedges often soar in value, offering a form of portfolio insurance.
Their value lies in convexity: small losses during normal times, outsized gains during rare but extreme downturns.
Liquidity
High. Tail hedges typically use liquid derivatives like index puts, VIX futures, or credit default swaps (CDS).
These instruments trade on major exchanges and allow for quick deployment or adjustment.
Many tail risk funds maintain daily liquidity, though custom hedge overlays may be more bespoke.
Access
Available to both institutional and retail investors.
Institutions often build custom overlays or allocate to specialist hedge funds (e.g., Universa, LongTail Alpha).
Retail investors can access tail hedging exposure via ETFs like VIX-linked products, tail-risk mutual funds, or options strategies in brokerage accounts.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Tail risk hedging is not designed for steady positive returns.
Most strategies carry a negative expected return of –5% to –10% per year during normal conditions due to the cost of long-volatility positions (like buying out-of-the-money puts).
However, during major selloff – like 2008 or March 2020 – these strategies can generate triple-digit gains.
It’s definitely a very lumpy return profile with very long dry periods.
It’s generally a piece of a portfolio (1-5% of the allocation) for most of those who allocate to it and not a standalone strategy.
Tail risk hedging is often used in a barbell strategy, where 95–100% of the portfolio is allocated to low-risk assets yielding 4–7% annually, and the income from those holdings funds a small, highly convex options overlay designed to explode in value during extreme market stress. Accordingly, in most years they gain nothing, and occasionally make a lot.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Tail risk hedging is a highly asymmetric strategy.
It typically incurs small, predictable losses most years, but delivers explosive returns in crises.
The payoff profile resembles insurance: expensive when unused, invaluable when needed.
This makes tail hedging most effective when paired with risk-on strategies to protect overall portfolio value during systemic shocks.
Convertible Arbitrage
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Convertible arbitrage exhibits low to moderate correlation with traditional assets.
The strategy involves buying convertible bonds and shorting the underlying stock to isolate mispricings, resulting in minimal net market exposure.
Correlation may rise during stressed markets if liquidity dries up, but it typically remains low.
Liquidity
Low to moderate. Convertible bonds are less liquid than equities or plain-vanilla bonds.
Funds using this strategy often have quarterly or annual redemption terms.
Intraday liquidity is rare due to the bespoke nature of the instruments.
Access
Primarily institutional via hedge funds.
Some specialized mutual funds and UCITS vehicles may offer exposure to retail investors, though less commonly.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Historically, 6–10% annualized returns.
Profits stem from mispricings between the convertible bond’s embedded option and the equity it tracks. Return potential rises with market volatility and issuance volume.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Moderate. Risks include credit risk from the issuer, liquidity risk in downturns, and equity volatility mismatch.
Hedging reduces directional exposure but doesn’t eliminate all risks.
Catastrophe Bonds (ILS)
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Catastrophe bonds (or “cat bonds”), a subset of Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS), typically show very low correlation to stocks, bonds, and economic cycles.
Their performance depends on specific insurance-related events, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or pandemics, rather than interest rates, corporate earnings, or GDP.
In other words, their return isn’t dependent on credit cycles.
Historical correlations to equity markets are close to zero (e.g., ~0.0-0.2), and cat bonds often posted gains during equity drawdowns, including in 2008.
Liquidity
Moderate. Cat bonds generally have maturities of 1–3 years and are issued in standardized formats, allowing for a functioning secondary market.
However, liquidity can evaporate during major catastrophe events or financial stress.
They’re not daily-liquid, but they offer more flexibility than private ILS deals or sidecars.
Access
Primarily institutional – pension funds, insurers, and hedge funds have long dominated the space.
However, retail access is improving through new vehicles like the Brookmont Catastrophic Bond ETF (ILS), closed-end funds, and diversified mutual funds.
Accredited investors can also invest through boutique ILS managers or structured products.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Typical cat bonds yield 5–9% annually, though yields have spiked into the double digits in recent years (17–20% in 2023–24) due to elevated reinsurance pricing.
Investors are compensated for assuming the risk of a specified event occurring.
If no catastrophe triggers the bond, the investor receives regular coupon payments and full principal back.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Low day-to-day volatility, with binary event risk.
These bonds behave like stable income instruments unless a triggering disaster occurs, at which point partial or full principal may be lost.
Risks are idiosyncratic and spatially diversified, meaning global investors can spread exposure across uncorrelated perils.
Their resilience to market contagion makes them highly valuable in diversified portfolios.
Reinsurance Sidecars
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Reinsurance sidecars are private investment vehicles that allow outside investors to take on a proportional share of an insurance company’s underwriting risk (typically for catastrophic events) in exchange for a share of the premium income and potential losses.
Reinsurance sidecars are highly uncorrelated vehicles.
Their returns hinge on insurance outcomes – specifically, whether a pool of catastrophe-linked policies experiences major losses.
Because they aren’t influenced by interest rates, equity valuations, or credit spreads, their market correlation is virtually nil.
Liquidity
Illiquid. Sidecars are private, locked-up vehicles, usually structured to last 1–3 years in line with the underlying insurance contracts.
There’s no secondary market, so investors must be willing to commit capital for the full term.
Access
Almost exclusively institutional. Investors typically include sophisticated allocators like pension funds, endowments, and reinsurance specialists.
Occasionally, accredited investors may gain exposure via niche ILS managers, but there’s no real retail access.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Returns range from 10% to 20%, depending on the risk profile of the underlying contracts and whether any major insured events occur.
In quiet catastrophe years, sidecars can generate strong, equity-like gains.
Nonetheless, payouts are directly exposed to losses from disasters like hurricanes or earthquakes.
Risk/Volatility Profile
These are high-risk, high-reward instruments.
Losses, when they happen, are abrupt and large (but infrequent).
The strategy carries tail risk.
So while returns can be smooth for long periods, they may experience sharp drawdowns during rare, severe events.
However, since the risks are unrelated to financial markets, they add real diversification power to multi-asset portfolios.
Life Settlements
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Life settlements are uncorrelated with traditional markets.
Their performance is driven by biological rather than financial timelines – specifically, the timing of insured individuals’ deaths.
Economic downturns, interest rate movements, and corporate earnings have almost no effect on expected cash flows, making them ideal for diversification.
Liquidity
These assets are illiquid by nature.
A life settlement investment involves purchasing life insurance policies on the secondary market and maintaining premium payments until maturity (i.e., the death of the insured).
Holding periods can range from 2 to 10+ years, and although a secondary market exists, it’s thin and often offers discounts.
Access
Mostly institutional and accredited investors.
Access typically comes via private funds specializing in life settlements or listed vehicles in international markets.
Retail access remains extremely limited due to regulatory complexity and long-duration risk.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Life settlement funds historically target 8–12% net IRRs, with income derived from eventual policy payouts.
Returns are influenced by accurate life expectancy modeling and premium management.
Longer-than-expected lifespans reduce returns, but well-diversified portfolios tend to smooth out this longevity risk over time.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Volatility is structurally low since valuations are based on actuarial modeling and don’t fluctuate with daily markets.
The primary risk is longevity – if people live longer than expected, cash flows are delayed.
However, when diversified across hundreds of lives and policies, these risks become manageable.
Importantly, life settlements offer non-cyclical, contractually defined cash flows that enhance portfolio resilience.
Litigation Finance
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Litigation finance is uncorrelated to public markets.
Returns depend on the outcomes of individual legal cases, not macroeconomic indicators, interest rates, or asset valuations.
Whether equities are up or down, a court ruling or settlement payout proceeds on its own timeline and merits.
This makes litigation finance one of the purest forms of idiosyncratic return available.
Liquidity
Very illiquid. Capital is tied up for the duration of each case, which can last 1 to 5 years or longer.
There’s no public market to exit early.
Funds typically have multi-year lockups, and cash flows are irregular, often arriving in lump sums when cases resolve.
This strategy requires patience and a tolerance for uncertain timing.
Access
Access is primarily limited to institutional and accredited investors.
Specialized private funds dominate the space, although a few publicly traded firms (e.g., Burford Capital) provide indirect retail access.
Direct retail entry remains scarce due to legal complexity, valuation challenges, and long time horizons.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Target returns generally fall in the 15–20% range, with some funds reporting even higher IRRs on resolved cases.
These returns reflect the risk of binary outcomes: win or lose, payout or nothing.
Diversification across many cases is essential to smooth performance.
Risk/Volatility Profile
High idiosyncratic risk per case. One case going poorly can mean a total loss of capital, while a win could return multiples.
But because the risks are legal and uncorrelated to markets, the overall portfolio can deliver strong, market-independent performance.
IP Royalties (Music, Pharma, Books, etc.)
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
IP royalties – whether from music, pharmaceuticals, books, or trademarks – have very low correlation to traditional financial markets.
Royalties are usage-based, meaning revenue flows come from how often a song is streamed, a drug is sold, or a book is purchased, not from stock market movements or interest rate cycles.
In recessions, people still listen to music, take prescriptions, and read.
This makes royalties a resilient, cash-generating asset class across economic environments.
Liquidity
Generally low. Most royalty deals are private, negotiated transactions.
While platforms like Royalty Exchange (like we talked about in our Listerine article) or ANote Music have introduced secondary markets, they remain limited in size and efficiency.
That said, some publicly traded royalty trusts and funds (e.g., Round Hill, Hipgnosis, and Corient IP) have emerged, offering more flexible exposure.
Pharmaceutical and book royalties can also be securitized in structured vehicles, but these are less accessible and still not highly liquid.
Access
Institutional investors have long participated in royalty streams – particularly in pharma, where billions in drug royalties are bought and sold.
Retail and accredited investors now increasingly gain exposure through royalty platforms, private funds, or buying direct cash flow streams from creators.
Some platforms offer fractionalized ownership in individual songs, book backlists, or patents.
Royalties from self-published books (especially on platforms like Amazon KDP) are even forming the basis of DIY royalty portfolios for entrepreneurial investors.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Returns vary widely but typically fall in the 5–15%+ range, depending on the asset’s popularity, duration, and structure.
Evergreen IP (e.g., Beatles songs, bestselling medical textbooks, blockbuster drugs) can offer high-yield, low-volatility income for decades.
Lesser-known assets may deliver short bursts of high returns but taper quickly.
Pharma royalties, when linked to mature and patent-protected drugs, often deliver double-digit IRRs.
Book royalties can be more volatile, especially if reliant on a narrow catalog or seasonal demand.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Generally low volatility, particularly for diversified royalty pools.
Risks include:
- revenue decay (e.g., audience interest fading, patent expiry, or competition)
- litigation (for copyright disputes), or
- sudden obsolescence (especially in tech or media)
But since revenues are contractual and consumption-based, royalty streams tend to be resilient, predictable, and non-cyclical.
They provide a compelling mix of cash flow and diversification for those looking beyond traditional equity/bond income.
Trade Finance
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Trade finance involves short-term, asset-backed lending to businesses for facilitating the import, export, or movement of goods, generating steady returns largely independent of public markets.
Trade finance has minimal correlation to public markets.
Returns are tied to the movement of goods and short-term credit arrangements between suppliers, buyers, and intermediaries.
In turn, this makes the asset class largely immune to stock price swings or bond yield changes.
It’s a working capital solution, not an investment driven by market sentiment.
Liquidity
Moderate. While individual loans are short-term (typically 30–180 days), trade finance is usually packaged into pooled funds with monthly or quarterly liquidity.
These vehicles offer decent accessibility but lack intraday trading or instant exits.
Access
Primarily institutional, though access is expanding.
Private credit funds dominate the space, but platforms like CredAble, InvoiceFair, and TradeShift allow retail or accredited investors to participate in select trade finance deals.
Tokenized and blockchain-based platforms are also emerging, which can further democratize access.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Yields typically range from 5–8%, reflecting the short duration and asset-backed nature of the loans.
Returns are generated through interest and fees paid by borrowers for short-term capital.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Low volatility. Loans are self-liquidating and often backed by receivables, inventory, or purchase orders.
Default rates have historically been low, though risks include fraud, supplier failure, or geopolitical disruption.
Because trade finance is structured around real economic activity, it offers steady income and reliable diversification without chasing market beta.
Private Debt (Direct & P2P Lending)
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Private debt generally exhibits moderate correlation to traditional markets.
While not directly tied to stock indices, it is sensitive to macroeconomic cycles.
Borrower defaults tend to rise in recessions, especially for lower-credit borrowers, introducing indirect exposure to economic downturns.
Still, daily mark-to-market volatility is low, making it less reactive than public equities or traded credit.
Liquidity
Low. Most private loans are illiquid and held to maturity, often spanning 2 to 7 years.
While some Business Development Companies (BDCs) or closed-end funds offer limited secondary liquidity, traditional private credit funds have quarterly or annual redemption windows and may impose gates.
Peer-to-peer lending platforms may offer early exit options, but typically with a discount or lockup.
Access
Both institutional and retail. Institutional investors often allocate through private credit funds, direct lending mandates, or co-investment deals.
Retail investors can access private debt via P2P platforms like LendingClub, Prosper, or Mintos, and publicly traded BDCs (e.g., Ares Capital, Main Street Capital).
Crowdfunding platforms and robo-advisors are also making the asset class more accessible to non-accredited investors.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Returns range from 6–12%, depending on the risk profile of borrowers and loan structure.
Senior secured loans to high-quality borrowers yield less but offer downside protection.
Subordinated or unsecured lending offers higher yield, but with increased credit risk.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Private debt typically delivers low price volatility, because loans aren’t marked to market daily, but moderate credit risk.
The biggest risk is borrower default, which can rise sharply in economic downturns.
Well-structured loans with collateral and conservative underwriting mitigate this, but the illiquidity premium is earned for a reason.
In diversified portfolios, private debt provides stable income, enhanced yield, and a partial hedge against public market drawdowns – though it’s not immune to macro stress.
Farmland
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Farmland has historically shown low to negative correlation with equities and bonds.
Its value is tied to long-term food demand, crop prices, and land scarcity, not corporate earnings or monetary policy.
During financial crises, farmland has often held or even increased in value (e.g., it posted double-digit gains in 2008 while the S&P 500 fell 37%).
It also tends to benefit from inflation, making it a natural inflation hedge.
Liquidity
Low. Direct farmland ownership is highly illiquid, often requiring years to sell and involving high transaction costs.
Nevertheless, liquidity is improving with platforms like AcreTrader, FarmTogether, and Farmland LP, which fractionalize ownership and provide semi-liquid investment vehicles.
Publicly traded farmland REITs (e.g., Gladstone Land, Farmland Partners) offer greater liquidity, though with some market beta exposure.
Access
Historically institutional (pension funds, endowments), but increasingly available to accredited and retail investors through crowdfunding platforms and farmland REITs.
Direct ownership is possible for high-net-worth individuals seeking full control, while managed funds offer passive exposure to operational farming assets.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Long-term total returns are typically in the 8–12% range, with a combination of land appreciation and crop income (rental or profit-sharing).
Farmland’s returns have historically been stable and consistent, driven by global food demand and constrained supply of arable land.
In some regions and periods, appreciation alone has matched equity-like returns, but without the volatility.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Farmland exhibits very low short-term volatility, largely due to appraisal-based valuations rather than daily market pricing.
Key risks include extreme weather, crop disease, commodity price fluctuations, and regulatory factors like water rights.
However, because farmland isn’t mark-to-market daily and demand for food is non-cyclical, its return profile is fairly steady, inflation-sensitive, and resilient during downturns.
Institutional investors often use it as a defensive, real-asset anchor in diversified portfolios.
Timberland
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Timberland investments have shown very low correlation to both equities and bonds.
The biological growth of trees is independent of market cycles – trees keep growing regardless of stock prices or interest rates.
Because timber can be harvested strategically (known as “storing on the stump”), landowners can delay sales during down markets, smoothing income and preserving value.
This gives timberland an inherent buffer against economic volatility and even some deflationary shocks.
Liquidity
Low. Direct timberland ownership involves substantial capital outlay, long investment horizons, and low transactional liquidity.
Sales can take months or years.
However, some liquidity is available via Timberland Investment Management Organizations (TIMOs), private funds, or publicly traded timber REITs (e.g., Weyerhaeuser, Rayonier), which offer a more flexible entry point with some public market exposure.
Access
Traditionally dominated by institutional investors like pensions and endowments, but high-net-worth individuals can access timberland via direct investment or through private timber funds.
Retail access is limited but improving through timber REITs and specialty real asset funds.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Historical returns range from 5–10% annually, depending on location, species mix, and timber prices.
Return components include biological growth (trees gaining volume and value over time), land appreciation, and timber sales (for paper, construction, and biomass).
Some regions – especially in the US South – have delivered long-term returns comparable to equities but with lower volatility.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Timberland offers low-to-moderate volatility and strong downside protection.
Trees grow predictably year over year, allowing investors to defer harvests during weak pricing periods.
This flexibility dampens volatility.
Key risks include natural disasters (fire, pests, storms), regulatory changes, and commodity price fluctuations for wood products.
However, since timberland income is tied to long-run biological and economic trends rather than short-term sentiment, the asset class has a stable, inflation-sensitive return profile.
In addition, timber often benefits from rising construction and housing demand, and it is increasingly viewed as a climate-aligned asset due to carbon sequestration benefits.
Infrastructure
Typical Correlation to Stocks/Bonds
Infrastructure investments tend to exhibit low to moderate correlation with traditional markets.
Their returns are often tied to usage-based cash flows (like tolls, energy transmission, or water delivery) that remain relatively steady across economic cycles.
While not immune to macro conditions, many infrastructure assets are contracted or regulated, insulating their revenues from short-term fluctuations in equity markets or interest rates.
During crises, core infrastructure has historically held up better than broad equity indices.
Liquidity
Low for private infrastructure; moderate for public.
Direct investments in infrastructure, such as toll roads, ports, or utilities, are highly illiquid and often require holding periods of 7–15 years.
However, retail investors can gain more flexible exposure through publicly traded infrastructure funds, ETFs, and REIT-like structures that offer better liquidity at the cost of some public market sensitivity.
Access
Institutional investors dominate private infrastructure through long-term mandates and specialized funds.
Retail and accredited investors increasingly access the sector through listed infrastructure funds, closed-end funds, and thematic ETFs focused on renewables, transportation, or global utilities.
Platforms like Yieldstreet have also opened fractional investment opportunities in some infrastructure-linked debt deals.
Expected Returns (Annual)
Target returns typically range from 8–12%, depending on asset type, region, and structure.
Returns often include a stable income component from tolls, lease payments, or utility fees, plus capital appreciation from inflation-linked escalations or asset upgrades.
Risk/Volatility Profile
Infrastructure tends to offer low-to-moderate volatility, with a profile similar to core real estate but more insulated from demand shocks.
Risks include regulatory changes, interest rate sensitivity, and political risk in emerging markets.
Assets like airports or rail may be exposed to economic downturns, while utilities and renewable energy tend to be more resilient.
Overall, infrastructure serves as a cash-flow rich, inflation-aligned asset class, prized for its stability and diversification benefits in long-term portfolios.