Blog Posts

Most traders and investors chase returns through price appreciation, but one of the most persistent and overlooked sources of profit lies in the “carry” earned simply by holding certain exposures, especially in when it comes to volatility (often considered its own asset class).  The volatility carry strategy works to systematically harvest the premium embedded in […]

How long does it take to prove that a statistical edge in markets is real (i.e., that a trader or fund manager can produce alpha)? Here we’ll be doing a one-tailed hypothesis test where we want to prove that someone’s win rate is significantly greater than 50%. The formula derived is: n >= (Z_alpha / […]

Beating the market is a goal that draws in everyone from hedge fund pros to casual Reddit traders.  Despite overwhelming odds and evidence, many believe they can outsmart a very complex system rife with skilled professionals with massive research budgets who have more information, better analysis, and better technology than a retail trader has.  Can […]

The best traders aren’t chasing magic indicators, but are essentially pursuing the same process that any profitable business takes.  A factory’s output may be profit, but its design focuses on process – every bolt tightened, every workflow timed, every metric checked. A disciplined trading shop treats ideas, risk, and repeat tests the same way Toyota […]

Government deficits may seem like economic trivia most of the time. They get bigger and bigger but it’s not certain how they seem to affect the day-to-day. At the same time, they influence markets in a variety of ways, from bond yields and currency trends to equities, commodities, and alternative assets. When debt grows faster […]

What separates the best traders from the rest isn’t a single skill or magic indicator.  It’s a collection of disciplined behaviors and structural principles applied consistently.    Key Takeaways: Traders Who Consistently Outperform – What Do They Do? They know how to make the most of their capital through efficient sizing and selective leverage. They […]

With all the ups and downs of markets, the key consideration behind any asset comes down to whether it makes money and whether it represents a yield commensurate with what you need and what risks you’re taking on in order to achieve it. In this article, we’ll look at various types of cash flowing assets […]

Emerging technologies are those which are new and haven’t yet been widely adopted among the public. But these trends and new markets that will be developed out of them can lead to outsized gains for traders and investors.   Emerging Tech and Trading Many traders believe the future will be a slightly modified version of […]

Tesla doesn’t trade particularly well on fundamentals like earnings, but instead moves according to flows, positioning, and sentiment-driven momentum.  Its massive options market – typically the largest for any single stock – has created powerful feedback loops that can drive price action independent of underlying performance.  We’ll discuss these more in this article.   Key […]

Probability distributions are one of the most fundamental concepts in finance, markets, and trading. They provide a fundamental framework for understanding, modeling, and managing the unknowns and risks inherent in these domains. Trading isn’t so much about “predicting the future” (i.e., trying to ascertain a deterministic line of how things will transpire) as it is […]