Blog Posts

So first, you’re probably thinking, what does the Manhattan real estate market have to do with day trading? My belief is that it’s important to have as broad of a view as possible of what’s going on in different asset classes – i.e., what are the forward returns of cash relative to bonds, and the […]

This article was published on September 26, 2019 Because negative interest rates will be a part of the euro area economy for a long time, central bankers are increasingly focusing on the harmful side effects that they might bring and getting around the matter with a tiered interest rate system. Namely, there is the issue […]

This article was published on September 19, 2019. Recently, rates in the overnight USD funding market – of which the repo market is a subset – spiked higher. The effective fed funds rate (EFFR) also went higher, which also happened to be the eve of FOMC lowering the rate 25 basis points (0.25 percent).   […]

This article was published on September 17, 2019 At the end of August, the US 10-year Treasury bond was yielding 1.43 percent. It is now back up to nearly 2 percent. For those who missed the first rally, this gives another opportunity. At least to those who believe in some version of the narrative of […]

This article was published on September 17, 2019 All market watchers know the details by this point. Drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facilities sent crude oil prices flying 10 percent or more depending on the type of crude. Brent crude, shown above, is more susceptible to a Saudi outage than WTI. It was the […]

This article was published on September 9, 2019 Experienced currencies traders know that government sponsored currency intervention is part of the game and can come out of the blue even when you may not expect it. Forex as a whole is a difficult asset class to trade with any degree of precision because there are so […]

This article was published on September 6, 2019 In a recent article, we took a look at the issues confronting the Argentinian economy. For those who trade emerging market currencies (“EM FX”), it’s important to understand the fundamentals of what makes a currency move and idiosyncrasies governing these currencies. Unlike when you’re trading a G-7 […]

This article was published on August 29, 2019 Argentina has been in the global markets headlines for over a year, with its tribulations with its economy and the volatility and severe depreciation in the Argentina peso. It is, once again, quite likely to default on its debt within the next few years unless it receives […]

Negative bond yields don’t make sense at first glance. Why would anyone pay somebody to hold their money for them? Normally when you put up a lump sum of cash to invest, you expect a return stream out of that in the future. It doesn’t seem prudent to see that pile of money decrease in […]

Let’s start with a basic trading principle: When one country slaps tariffs on another country’s tariffs that is bullish for the tariff-implementing country and bearish for the country on the receiving end of them. It is an external shock that reduces national income for the recipient. The ongoing trade conflict between the US and China […]