Blog Posts

This article was published on June 4, 2020 High-ranking members of the Trump administration have asserted that Hong Kong no longer merits a special status as it pertains to trade. This could give the semi-autonomous territory treatment similar to that reserved for mainland China. To this point, the US has given Hong Kong favorable trading […]

The difficult thing about doing well in the markets is that it’s not whether results turn out “good” or “bad” for a particular asset or asset class but how things turn out relative to what’s already discounted in the price. The range of information that it unknown is going to be far greater than whatever […]

Markets and economies work in what are called cycles, or in a series of logically-driven patterns. In capitalist economies, which is most of the world, expansions and contractions in credit are what drive economic and market cycles. The game Monopoly is a useful analogy to apply to the broader economy. If you understand how Monopoly […]

This article was published on May 14, 2020. Negative interest rate policy, commonly abbreviated NIRP, is employed in other parts of the developed world outside the US. Japan has its front end rates at minus-10bps (0.1 percent) and has been that way since early-2016. (Source: tradingeconomics.com)   The euro zone’s deposit facility rate has been […]

Cash provides safety, liquidity, and optionality. Having some part of your portfolio in cash is important for a buffer room and overall protection. Traders who always expend all of their cash to stay “fully invested” will inevitably face frequent margin calls. Bonds are a promise to deliver currency over time. Because of their duration, they […]

Economic cycles and how they operate, which are the main drivers of asset prices, are heavily a function of productivity and indebtedness. Productivity rises over time as people learn, invent, and create. Productivity is not a purely linear thing, but is relatively stable over time. It much less volatile than the cycles involved in credit […]

The US dollar is currently the world’s reserve currency. But throughout time, this changes. Various people have different opinions. Will it be the US dollar (USD) for a long time yet (i.e., the rest of this century)? Will sovereign governments become so over-extended that it inevitably reverts back to a hard backing as it’s done […]

Bitcoin first came to prominence in the mainstream in 2017 during its speculative bubble. It rose to around $20,000 before retracing more than 80 percent. Since the top it’s mostly held under 50 percent of its former high. (Source: Trading View)   Digital currencies are still largely misunderstood because of their decentralized nature, technological complexity, […]

Private placement investing, also known as private investments in public equity (PIPEs), is an additional channel for public companies to raise capital outside of the traditional ways of IPOs and secondary offerings. In a recent article, we covered SPACs, or “blank check” companies, as a means of raising capital (for companies) and an alternative means […]

‘Bond vigilantes’ are supposedly the traders who regulate interest rates based on the notional intrinsic value of bonds. Governments all over the world are stimulating economies in a big way and showering money all over the place to offset the drop in demand. In an bygone era with less government intervention in the bond market, […]