Five Stocks That Could Do Well In 2025
Identifying resilient companies in an uncertain macroeconomic environment requires more than just screening for profitability or recent performance.
The real test is how a business behaves when conditions tighten and change – whether it can preserve margins, maintain relevance, and continue delivering value.
We give a framework that outlines the traits that help companies not only survive but thrive across economic cycles, with examples that bring these traits to life.
Key Takeaways – Stock Picking in a Global Macro Context
- Resilient companies are defined by their ability to maintain relevance, protect margins, and deliver value across economic cycles.
- This framework outlines the core traits – such as essential services, strong balance sheets, and adaptability – that help businesses thrive through uncertainty.
- The following case studies illustrate how these enduring qualities show up in real-world companies built for long-term durability.
Key Characteristics of Resilient Companies in an Uncertain Macroeconomic Environment
Providers of Essential Goods and Services
As we covered in our guide to what constitutes an effective “store of wealth,” companies that offer necessities – e.g., food, basic medicine, healthcare, utilities, and basic consumer products – tend to perform consistently, even during recessions.
People cut luxury and discretionary spending before they stop buying what they need to survive.
That stability gives these companies an advantage in volatile markets.
Strong Value Proposition
In times of economic strain, customers gravitate toward brands that give them the most for their money.
Companies that deliver on quality, reliability, or convenience tend to maintain loyalty even when wallets tighten.
Efficient Operations and Supply Chains
When global supply chains are under pressure, operational efficiency becomes a competitive edge.
Companies that manage inventory, logistics, and sourcing well can maintain margins even in disruptive environments. Cost control and supply continuity translate to resilience.
Strong Balance Sheets
Low debt and ample cash reserves create flexibility.
These companies aren’t scrambling for liquidity when credit tightens; they’re often acquiring weaker competitors or reinvesting in growth while others are cutting back.
Customer Loyalty and a Strong Brand
Loyalty reduces customer acquisition costs and insulates a company from aggressive competition.
A trusted brand can command premium pricing and repeat business, even in a downturn.
Connection with consumers is a strategic asset.
Adaptability and Innovation
The world doesn’t change much on a day-to-day basis, and sometimes not even year to year. But once you get to 1-2 decade timeframes, often a lot has changed.
If you look at the “best companies” over time, as defined by benchmarks like the Dow or similar, every 25 years they tend to look very different.
Companies that can evolve win (or risk being supplanted by upstart competitors).
That means innovating products, embracing new technologies, or pivoting business models when necessary.
Resilience isn’t about repeatable processes, but also iterating and evolving as necessary.
Case Studies to Illustrate This Framework
The goal isn’t to chase the next trend. It’s to find companies that will still be thriving five, ten, or twenty years from now.
That means quality over narratives and hype.
To illustrate how these principles show up in real businesses, here are five companies that demonstrate these resilience traits.
These are not stock picks or recommendations, but case studies to help recognize what long-term durability might look like.
1) Costco Wholesale (COST)
Essential Goods and Strong Value Proposition
Costco sells products that people need – household staples, groceries, and basic supplies.
By offering them in bulk at unbeatable prices, Costco becomes even more appealing when consumers are trying to cut costs.
Its value proposition strengthens during tough times, not weakens.
Efficient Operations
The warehouse model is simple, but incredibly effective.
By stripping out unnecessary overhead and focusing on scale, Costco keeps its costs low and its shelves moving.
High inventory turnover and supply chain discipline make it one of the most operationally efficient retailers globally.
Strong Balance Sheet
Costco doesn’t rely heavily on borrowed money.
Its low debt levels and strong cash flows give it the freedom to invest, expand, or simply weather an economic downturn without blinking.
Customer Loyalty and Strong Brand
The membership model builds commitment, creates recurring revenue, and keeps customers coming back.
Shoppers associate Costco with value, trust, and quality – a connection that shields the brand from many competitive threats.
Adaptability
While many retailers stumbled in the shift to e-commerce, Costco has quietly built a solid digital presence.
It continues to evolve its offerings, from organic foods to electronics, responding to changing consumer trends.
Adaptability ensures that Costco stays relevant, no matter what the market throws its way.
2) Pfizer (PFE)
Providers of Essential Goods and Services
Pfizer produces medications and vaccines that people and healthcare systems rely on regardless of what’s happening in the economy.
Whether times are good or bad, the need for effective treatments and preventative care doesn’t go away.
That baseline demand gives Pfizer a durable revenue stream.
Strong Value Proposition
Few products deliver more meaningful value than those that save lives or dramatically improve health outcomes.
Pfizer justifies the massive investment required to research, develop, and distribute these treatments.
Patients, providers, and governments all recognize the importance of what Pfizer delivers.
Efficient Operations and Supply Chains
Pfizer’s supply chain spans the globe, reaching into dozens of countries with thousands of moving parts.
Yet the company continues to streamline, as shown by a major cost-cutting program designed to unlock billions in annual savings.
Strong Balance Sheet
Despite large acquisitions, Pfizer maintains a healthy financial profile.
Its consistent cash flow allows it to service debt while investing in future growth and rewarding shareholders.
Its high dividend yield highlights both its financial strength and its appeal to income-focused investors who want more certainty in their cash flow.
Customer Loyalty and a Strong Brand
While most consumers aren’t buying directly from Pfizer, doctors, hospitals, and public health agencies trust Pfizer’s products because of proven results and regulatory rigor.
This trust is reinforced by patents that protect the company’s drugs from competitors, allowing it to maintain pricing power and market share.
Adaptability and Innovation
Pfizer acquires strategically, innovates, and constantly adjusts its portfolio.
Its acquisition of Seagen is part of a clear strategy to lead in oncology, one of the fastest-growing areas in medicine.
3) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): A Healthcare Powerhouse with Built-In Resilience
Essential Goods and Services
Health isn’t optional.
From surgical tools to cancer treatments, Johnson & Johnson delivers products people rely on every day, regardless of market conditions or consumer sentiment.
Strong Value Proposition
The company doesn’t just sell products; it offers outcomes.
Its medicines, devices, and consumer health solutions improve quality of life and often mean the difference between recovery and decline.
Resilient Operations
One of J&J’s greatest strengths is its diversification.
It spans three major healthcare segments:
- pharmaceuticals
- medical devices, and
- consumer health
When one division faces headwinds, the others often pick up the slack.
That operational balance smooths out volatility.
Strong Balance Sheet
J&J is financially rock-solid.
It holds one of the highest credit ratings in the corporate world, giving it access to low-cost capital and strategic optionality.
It can fund innovation, navigate downturns, and pursue acquisitions – all without putting its stability at risk.
Adaptability and Innovation
It consistently reinvents its offerings to meet new medical challenges.
4) Microsoft (MSFT): The Digital Backbone of the Modern Economy
Essential Goods and Services
Microsoft’s offerings are no longer optional for most businesses.
From cloud infrastructure to productivity software, its products are foundational to how the world works.
Strong Value Proposition
Microsoft delivers leverage. Its suite of tools helps organizations operate faster, smarter, and more securely. That makes it a core partner in the modern enterprise.
Customer Loyalty and High Switching Costs
Once a company adopts Microsoft’s ecosystem, it becomes embedded.
Switching away often means re-training staff, replacing entire workflows, and risking compatibility issues.
That friction creates stickiness and long-term loyalty.
Strong Balance Sheet
Microsoft sits on tens of billions in cash and continues to generate massive free cash flow.
Its financial strength allows it to invest aggressively in future technologies while still returning value to shareholders.
Adaptability and Innovation
Once seen as a legacy tech giant, Microsoft has reinvented itself.
Its bold push into cloud computing, AI, and enterprise services shows a company that doesn’t just follow trends; it helps shape them.
The shift under Satya Nadella is one of the most successful pivots in tech history.
5) Visa (V): The Backbone of Global Digital Payments
Essential Service
Visa isn’t just a convenience, but infrastructure. In a world that’s using less cash, Visa’s payment network is a fundamental service powering everyday transactions across the globe.
Strong Value Proposition
Speed, security, and trust. Visa delivers all three with every transaction.
Whether you’re a small business owner or a multinational retailer, Visa simplifies payments in a way that’s hard to match.
Network Effect and Efficient Operations
Visa benefits massively from the flywheel effect. Every new user, whether a cardholder or merchant, adds value to the network.
Because it runs a scalable tech platform rather than issuing credit directly, Visa enjoys low marginal costs and typically 50%+ profit margins.
Strong Balance Sheet
Visa’s financials are exceptionally strong.
High operating margins, consistent free cash flow, and limited debt make it one of the most financially secure companies in the world.
It has the flexibility to invest, return capital, or weather turbulence without strain.
Adaptability and Innovation
Visa continues to evolve beyond plastic cards.
It’s investing in digital wallets, embedded finance, real-time payments, and cybersecurity.
That constant innovation ensures it stays indispensable as the future of money takes shape.