Backtesting

Backtesting is a method for assessing the validity of an investment strategy by using historical data to see how an asset (or portfolio of assets) would have performed in past periods. If results were successful, it might encourage traders to use that strategy going forward.

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Backtesting Theory

The underlying theory is that any strategy that worked well in the past is likely to work well in the future, and conversely, any strategy that performed poorly in the past is likely to perform poorly in the future.

But is this true?

In many cases, back-tested strategies fail once applied to the real world, as the sudden collapse of LTCM graphically illustrated. This could be due a number of factors, but the most common are dependence on correlations that disappear or biases in the back-testing process.

Examples of the pitfalls of back-testing include;

These problems do not make back-testing useless, but like many things related to markets, they should not be relied on exclusively.

Market risk cannot be measured in an objective way as it is not directly observable, being only inferred from variables that can be directly measured (Value-at-Risk, Probabilities e.g. confidence intervals etc.) Ultimately, there is no substitute for “live” trading, as it incorporates the real-world pressures and biases involved in actual trading.

[1] That is, those investment horizons not originally used to generate the strategy. A 10-year dataset might be used to construct a trading system, but to be useful it would need to have demonstrated its viability in periods other than that 10-year horizon. The data outside of that 10-year period would be out-of-sample data.