Gold reached its short-term peak on 19th February, posting a huge gain for the day that enabled many investors to make some big gains. Top analysis has been telling investors that gold would probably retrace below the £1,000 / $1300 level, and possibly deeper, by the middle of April. Here’s what you should know about gold for the coming weeks and beyond.
The Ongoing Situation
First, understand that the downside movement in price is not finished yet. It is likely to continue into early April in an attempt to reach a value base and a fresh momentum bottom. A soft low target of around £960 / $1100 is a pretty safe bet, but the value might retrace below this level before a true price base level is established. So prepare yourself for this kind of low in the near future.
The downside price move for gold will present opportunities for the skilled trader over the coming 3-6 months and beyond. Estimates suggest that the asset will rally in the region of £1,150 / $1500 or higher around May-June 2019, and this is how the current downside move is an opportunity for the skilled trader.
A look at global economic and political news suggests that there is a shifting capital across the globe in 2019. Global capital is shifting into the safety of the US stock market, away from previously high-flying technology stocks.
This results in an abatement of the anxiety that would usually lead to a resurgence in gold prices. The USD is strong, and investors seem willing to pump capital into large Blue Chips and Mid-Caps, reducing the fear hedge that usually drives up gold prices.
The Right Moment
This trader psychology may change by late April/early May. So look to see a strong price advance for gold around the period of May-June 2019.
Pay close attention to a potential cycle bottom or event in the news that could change the dynamics of the markets for precious metals, somewhere in mid-late April. This could provide an opprtunity to gain in the short term with gold, but it will require a shrewd strategy.